China’s trade landscape a battleground, as data shows tariff duels to escalate with WTO hamstrung
The recent escalation in global trade frictions centred around China – including a rise in anti-dumping investigations and retaliatory measures from Beijing – has been quantified by official data, with analysts anticipating even more tariffs thanks to a diminished role for World Trade Organization arbitration.
In the first half of the year, China faced 64 anti-dumping investigations from trading partners, an increase of 166 per cent, year on year, according to China Trade Remedies Information, a platform under the Ministry of Commerce.
India launched 16 of the anti-dumping investigations on China – one-fourth of the total – with the United States and Brazil each initiating seven.
Around 40 per cent of the investigated products were chemical raw materials, and other common targets included non-metallic items such as glass wine bottles and goods related to iron and steel industry.
China has also faced 13 anti-subsidy investigations in the first half of the year, nearly triple the number during the same period in 2023. Over half were initiated by the US, primarily against raw materials and products in the chemical industry.
From the other side, Beijing has launched seven anti-dumping investigations in the first six months of 2024, up from zero in the same period last year.
Current probes from mainland China have hit the European Union hardest and focused on red wine, pork and polyformaldehyde copolymer – a chemical that is the subject of parallel investigations being conducted on the US, Japan and Taiwan.
In addition, China has initiated an anti-dumping investigation against cypermethrin from India, a synthetic pesticide used on crops and in homes.
Recent years have seen large swings in the number of trade cases concerning China. After an all-time high of 131 in 2020, the figure dropped to 46 in 2022, when global supply chains were disrupted by the pandemic – the lowest number since 1998.
“In the long term, China is likely to face increasing trade friction cases,” said Mei Yuan, assistant professor of economics at Singapore Management University. “This trend has already begun, as the EU has decided to investigate China’s electric vehicles (EVs).”
In eras past, the WTO and its courts might have served as venue for these disputes. But with no quorum of judges for its appellate body – the result of a sustained campaign from the US to block appointees which has left all seven seats empty – any complaint a state could take to the international trade grouping would go without reply.
“Beijing believes it is trading under WTO rules, yet the US has blocked the WTO’s regulatory role,” Mei said. “Without the WTO as arbiter, we are likely to witness more frequent use of tariffs by more countries.”
Since last summer, taxes on Chinese imports have been accumulating rapidly. The EU plans tariffs of up to 48 per cent on EVs, and the US is set to impose new duties on Chinese medical products, EVs and batteries starting next month.
On Monday, Turkey initiated anti-dumping investigations against China’s tin-plated steel coil and stainless steel cold rolled coil. The same day, the US opened anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations against vanillin, a flavouring agent.
Last Friday, Indonesia’s Trade Minister Zulkifli Hasan said at a press conference that the country plans to impose tariffs of 100 to 200 per cent on imported shoes, garments, and ceramic products – including those from China – to protect local enterprises.
Post a Comment for "China’s trade landscape a battleground, as data shows tariff duels to escalate with WTO hamstrung"